PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-02-02 - Market Wrap and Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks rose, yields ticked higher after stronger ISM manufacturing; earnings stole the spotlight. • After hours: Woodward raised guidance; Simon Property reported FFO and declared a dividend.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — ISM’s January manufacturing rebound pushed cyclical sentiment and nudged yields higher into the close, while after-hours corporate reports rerouted attention to industrials and REITs. The stronger PMI pressured Treasuries and supported dollar/commodity sensitivity, leaving equities modestly firmer into the close. Woodward’s guide raise and Simon Property’s FFO/dividend drove postmarket sector diverges, suggesting selective stock-specific flows ahead. Overall positioning looked cautious into tomorrow given macro upside and mixed company news ($SPY, $TLT).
Intraday — At 10:00 ET ISM’s Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.60 with strong New Orders and Production readings, lifting cyclical bets and boosting equity futures into the afternoon; the report also underpinned rate repricing and dollar reaction ($SPY, $TLT). Markets digested the data alongside routine flows, leaving breadth modestly positive into the 16:00 close ($DXY, ES=F).
After Hours — Woodward’s 1Q beat and raised FY26 sales and EPS guidance, keeping aerospace/industrial names bid and directing attention to supplier re-ratings ($WWD, ITA). Simon Property reported higher FFO and a $2.20 quarterly dividend, including a large non-cash Taubman-related gain that skewed net income comparatives and moved retail-REIT paper and the REIT ETF conversation ($SPG, IYR).
Market Wrap and Trades For Tomorrow
1/2 Long $SPG — Enter long SPG with a market-on-open buy order for 2026-02-03 and close the position with a market-on-close sell order on 2026-02-03.
Simon Property’s 4Q25 Real Estate FFO increased to $3.49 per share from $3.35, indicating stronger core cashflow. The board declared a $2.20 common dividend for 1Q26, underscoring ongoing income support. A large Taubman-related gain is explicitly non-cash, so the market should emphasize improving FFO and confirmed dividend strength.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
2/2 Long $WWD — Enter long WWD with a market-on-open buy order for 2026-02-03 and exit via a market-on-close sell order on 2026-02-03.
Woodward’s fiscal 1Q26 EPS rose to $2.17 from $1.42 with sales up to $996M, showing strong operational momentum. Management raised FY26 EPS guidance to $8.20–$8.60 and lifted sales growth guidance to +14%–+18%, while keeping free cash flow guidance intact. This guidance upgrade should drive positive estimate revisions and near-term share outperformance.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0