PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-02-04 - Market Wrap and Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks mixed as softer ADP and steady ISM kept rates sensitive; tech after-hours strength. • Alphabet reported stronger Q4 results and huge 2026 capex plans, boosting megacap tone.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Markets opened on softer labor and steady services data, left rates and the dollar watching economic nuance while energy inventories tightened and megacap earnings dominated after-hours; equity breadth was uneven. ADP’s weak private payrolls kept front-end rate focus ($SPY, $TLT). EIA’s crude draw tightened product balances, supporting oil complex sentiment ($CL=F).
Intraday — Early prints showed ADP’s private payrolls well below expectations and ISM Services unchanged with rising prices, keeping growth-versus-inflation debate front and center for equities and the dollar ($DXY) into the session; energy data from the EIA flagged a 3.5mn barrel crude draw and falling distillates, underpinning oil and energy names ($CL=F, $XLE).
After Hours — Alphabet topped revenue and EPS in its Q4 filing and disclosed a very large 2026 capex target, shifting megacap narratives and boosting tech ETFs and sentiment into the close ($GOOGL, $QQQ).
Market Wrap and Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $AMZN — If Amazon’s Feb 5 Q4 release shows EPS ≥$2.10, go long $AMZN in the after-hours session following the print and hold through the next US regular-session close; if EPS ≤$1.80, go short $AMZN in that after-hours window and cover at the next US regular-session close.
Street expects Q4 EPS $1.96 on ~$211.3B revenue. An EPS outcome ≥$2.10 would confirm a stronger margin narrative in AWS, retail and ads, supporting upside. A print ≤$1.80 would imply margin disappointment versus expectations, risking a reset in Amazon’s growth/profit story and pressuring megacap growth sentiment.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $UNG — If the Feb 5 EIA report at 10:30 ET shows a US natural gas storage change ≤-400 Bcf, go long $UNG after the release and hold through the next US regular-session close; if the change is ≥-250 Bcf, go short $UNG after the release and cover at…
Consensus looks for a -366 Bcf withdrawal vs prior -242 Bcf. A larger draw ≤-400 Bcf would signal a tighter late-winter balance, supporting Henry Hub prompt prices and $UNG. A smaller draw ≥-250 Bcf would indicate looser fundamentals versus expectations, undermining bullish weather and demand narratives near term.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Long $TLT — If the rescheduled Dec 2025 JOLTS report at 10:00 ET shows job openings ≤6.8M, go long $TLT after the release and hold through that day’s US close; if openings are ≥7.6M, go short $TLT after the data and cover at the same US close.
Prior job openings were 7.146M. A drop to ≤6.8M would mark clearer labor-market cooling, easing wage and inflation concerns and supporting longer-duration Treasuries. A rebound to ≥7.6M would reinforce a tighter labor narrative, pushing up term premia and yields, which is negative for $TLT prices over the session.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0