PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-02-11 - Market Wrap and Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks modestly mixed, yields shifted after payrolls and benchmark revision dominated markets. • After hours: Martin Marietta filed results and 2026 EBITDA guidance.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Payrolls came in +130k with wages up +0.4% m/m and a large March 2025 benchmark downward revision, prompting front-end rate and equity re-pricing. Futures and equities reacted to the labor detail ($ES=F) while short-end rates and the curve moved on the revision ($ZN=F). Oil inventories and product builds added a mild commodity theme into the session.
Intraday — The BLS reported January payrolls +130k, unemployment 4.30% and average hourly earnings +0.40% m/m, with an 898k downward benchmark revision to March 2025 that pressured rate expectations and equity positioning ($ES=F) while boosting short-end rate volatility ($ZB=F). The BLS also revised upcoming release dates, affecting event-risk calendars and positioning ($ZN=F). EIA’s weekly report showed crude inventories fell by 1.0M bbl and gasoline rose 2.3M bbl, underlining product-market nuances into the close ($CL=F, $RB=F).
After Hours — Martin Marietta filed Q4 results and set 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint of $2.485B, a material-data point for construction and materials peers that will be parsed overnight ($MLM). Postmarket reaction will interact with rate and equity futures positioning heading into tomorrow ($ES=F, $ZN=F).
Market Wrap and Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $COIN — If Coinbase reports Q4 EPS at or above $2.00 after the close on Feb 12, 2026, go long COIN in the post-earnings after-hours session on Feb 12 and hold the position through the close of regular trading on Feb 13, 2026.
Kiplinger cites Q4 expectations of $1.01 EPS and $1.85B revenue. An EPS print at or above $2.00 would imply much stronger trading activity, take-rates, or cost leverage than implied. Such upside typically supports higher confidence in Coinbase’s earnings power and crypto-linked beta, favoring a tactical post-print long into the first full regular session.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Short $ABNB — If Airbnb reports EPS at or below $0.30 after the close on Feb 12, 2026, short ABNB in the post-earnings after-hours session on Feb 12 and maintain the position through the close of regular trading on Feb 13, 2026.
The earnings preview lists an EPS estimate of $0.67. If Airbnb delivers EPS at or below $0.30, that would mark a sizable downside surprise versus expectations, likely reflecting weaker nights/bookings, ADR, or margin pressure. Such a miss would undermine confidence in travel demand and growth, creating room for ABNB to trade lower tactically.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Long $AMAT — If Applied Materials reports EPS at or above $2.40 after the close on Feb 12, 2026, go long AMAT in the post-earnings after-hours session on Feb 12 and hold through the close of regular trading on Feb 13, 2026.
Kiplinger pegs Q4 EPS expectations at $2.21. A print at or above $2.40 would be solid upside and suggest stronger WFE demand, resilient gross margins, or better-than-feared China exposure. That would reinforce a constructive view on the semicap cycle and can justify buying AMAT tactically as investors reassess growth and earnings durability.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0