PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-03-04 - Market Wrap and Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks rallied; front-end yields steadied after ISM, ADP data and strong Broadcom results. • Broadcom posted strong FQ1 results, $22B guide and $10B buyback.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — US risk assets finished higher as growth signals and company results shifted intraday positioning; S&P futures rose while front-end Treasuries held steady ($ES=F, $ZN=F). ADP’s modest private payroll gain and a stronger ISM services print supported cyclicals, while crude inventories tempered energy moves ($DX=F, $CL=F). A well-bid 17-week bill auction and Broadcom’s robust report reinforced a confidence tone into the close ($SGOV, $AVGO).
Intraday — ADP showed private payrolls up 63k and annual pay +4.5%, and ISM services jumped to 56.1, lifting growth sentiment and nudging the dollar and rate expectations ($DX=F, $ZN=F). EIA data showed crude stocks +3.5mb, offsetting some energy upside even as refinery utilization stayed elevated ($CL=F, $RB=F). The Treasury sold $69B of 17-week bills at a 3.590% high rate with ~3.26 bid-to-cover, keeping front-end liquidity in focus ($SGOV, $ZQ=F).
After Hours — Broadcom reported FQ1 revenue $19.311B, non-GAAP EPS $2.05, guided Q2 revenue near $22.0B and announced a $10B buyback, driving postmarket strength ($AVGO, $ES=F). Markets digested the beat/guide into the evening, with risk assets holding gains as traders rebalanced rate- and growth-sensitive positions ($ZN=F, $DX=F).
Market Wrap and Trades For Tomorrow
1/2 Long $COST — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings
Plan: If Q2 EPS >= 4.7 and revenue >= 68.964B, go long at next regular-session open for 1–3 sessions.
Street expects EPS ~$4.51 on revenue ~$68.964B after a prior quarter beat ($4.50 vs $4.27, revenue modestly above estimates). If Q2 EPS reaches at least $4.7 with revenue at or above consensus, it signals resilient traffic and membership, likely driving further defensive and quality flows into COST near term.
Risk: If COST closes below its pre-earnings close on either of the first two sessions. • Valid until 2026-03-11 23:59 ET
Trade credibility: actionability ★★★★☆ | timeliness ★★★★☆ | clarity ★★★★☆
2/2 Long $AVGO — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings
Plan: Go long AVGO at next regular-session open after this report and hold through the next 1–3 sessions.
Broadcom posted strong FQ1 growth with revenue rising from $14.916B to $19.311B and free cash flow at 41% of revenue. Q2 guidance of ~$22.0B revenue and ~68% adjusted EBITDA margin reinforces AI and infrastructure leverage. A new $10B buyback plus a $0.65 dividend should support near-term multiple and dip buying.
Risk: If AVGO is below its pre-earnings close by the close of day-2 session. • Valid until 2026-03-11 23:59 ET
Trade credibility: actionability ★★★★☆ | timeliness ★★★★☆ | clarity ★★★★☆