PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-03-12 - Trade Ideas For Tomorrow
• Stocks steady as rates drift after resilient jobs and a firm 30‑year auction. • Adobe and Rubrik reported results after the close. • Tomorrow Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Jobless claims printed 213k and continuing claims fell, while the 30‑year Treasury auction cleared at 4.871%, keeping yields in focus (ZN=F, ZB=F). Natural gas stocks slid 38 Bcf, leaving storage modestly below the five‑year average and supporting energy-sensitive sectors. After the bell, software and security names reported results that will shape near‑term tech sentiment.
Intraday — Morning data showed initial jobless claims of 213,000 and a lower insured‑unemployment stock, which fed front‑end rate and dollar positioning (ZN=F, DX=F); EIA said working gas fell 38 Bcf, pressuring prompt gas prices (NG=F). The Treasury auction for the 29‑year bond stopped at 4.871%, a setting that anchored long‑end yield moves into the close (ZB=F).
After Hours — Adobe reported Q1 revenue $6.40bn, non‑GAAP EPS $6.06 and a Q2 revenue guide, plus a CEO succession transition noted (ADBE); Rubrik posted Q4 revenue $377.7mn, subscription ARR $1.46bn and FY27 revenue guidance, both prints likely to reprice software and security peers (RBRK).
Trade Ideas For Tomorrow
1/2 Long $VEON — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings
Plan: If VEON reports at least 5% y/y revenue growth, go long $VEON in the first session, holding for the next 1–3 sessions.
VEON’s FY25 update will highlight group revenue, EBITDA, free cash flow, and capex alongside Kyivstar and Jazz trends. A revenue growth result of 5% y/y or better would confirm healthy operating momentum, building on Jazz’s 190 MHz spectrum win and recent digital expansion. Stronger cash generation and growth should support a tactical rerating in the following sessions.
Risk: Exit if $VEON closes below its first post-release regular-session close within the next 3 sessions. • Valid until 2026-03-19 close (ET)
Trade credibility: actionability ★★★★☆ | timeliness ★★★★☆ | clarity ★★★★☆
2/2 Long $ADBE — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings
Plan: Go long $ADBE at next regular-session open following earnings, targeting a rebound over the next 1–3 sessions.
Adobe posted Q1 FY26 revenue of $6.40bn, non-GAAP EPS of $6.06, and ARR of $26.06bn, while reaffirming FY26 targets. Q2 guidance of $6.43bn-$6.48bn revenue and $5.80-$5.85 non-GAAP EPS supports growth and margin durability. CEO transition may initially pressure sentiment, but stable guidance should anchor the multiple over the next few sessions.
Risk: Exit if $ADBE closes below its first post-earnings regular-session close within the next 3 sessions. • Valid until 2026-03-19 close (ET)
Trade credibility: actionability ★★★☆☆ | timeliness ★★★☆☆ | clarity ★★★☆☆