PickAlpha Evening Report | 2025-11-12 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
Stocks drifted as longer-term yields ticked higher after a weak 10-year auction and a major regulatory probe. Cisco raised FY26 revenue guidance on stronger demand; Three Trade Ideas for Tomorrow.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — A soft $42bn 10-year Treasury auction and an FTC probe of proxy advisers pressured sentiment, while Cisco’s post-close guidance lift offered a late positive note. Rates moved up after the auction; tech received a boost after hours.
Intraday — At 13:08 ET the Treasury reopened $42bn of 10-year notes, which tailed with a high yield of 4.074% and a bid-to-cover of 2.43, slightly weaker demand than recent auctions and marginally lower yield than last month’s 4.117%; later at 13:49 ET Reuters/WSJ reported the FTC opened an antitrust probe into proxy advisers ISS and Glass Lewis, raising regulatory uncertainty for stewardship providers and related firms.
After Hours — At 18:06 ET Cisco raised fiscal‑2026 revenue guidance to $60.2–61.0bn from $59.0–60.0bn, citing stronger AI‑related infrastructure and security demand, and its shares rallied in late trading.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
Long $CSCO — Buy at market open (09:30 ET) on 2025-11-13 (market order) and trim/assess after first 60 minutes of trade.
Cisco raised FY26 revenue guidance after the close citing stronger AI-related demand and shares rose in late trading; capture follow-through into the open when US equities reprice that guidance for cloud/AI infrastructure peers and tech indices.
Trade credibility: actionability 70 | timeliness 90 | clarity 80
Conditional $DXY — If the BLS cancels or postpones the October CPI release by 08:30 ET on 2025-11-13, initiate a short $DXY position at 08:35 ET and reassess…
White House warned shutdown disruptions could lead to CPI postponement/cancellation; a cancelled CPI would likely lower near-term Fed cut expectations and pressure the dollar via reduced data-driven rate certainty.
Trade credibility: actionability 65 | timeliness 95 | clarity 80
Conditional CL=F — At 12:05 ET on 2025-11-13, trade WTI: if the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report shows U.S. crude stocks down vs prior week (a draw), buy…
EIA weekly inventory data (released midday) directly moves near-term WTI and refined product balances; a draw supports higher front-month crude, a build pressures prices—use the report’s direction as the binary trigger.
Trade credibility: actionability 80 | timeliness 95 | clarity 85