PickAlpha Evening Report | 2025-11-13 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks mixed, long-end yields moved after 30‑year auction; • Earnings from Applied Materials, Virgin Galactic etc; Cabot dividend; Treasury sanctions announced. • Three Trade Ideas for Tomorrow
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Markets digested a busy policy and issuance day, then reacted to several after-close corporate reports. The 30‑year auction, OFAC sanctions tied to Mexico and AMAT’s postmarket guide set the tone for risk and duration positioning.
Intraday — Nasdaq listed a Fossil note‑exchange completion alert at open, Cboe posted volatility pauses and halts including a 10:18 ET pause and a 13:30 ET halt, the Treasury ran a 30‑year bond auction at 13:00 ET, and the Treasury/OFAC announced coordinated sanctions with Mexico at 11:00 ET, flagging MX‑related flows, compliance costs and potential UST bid influence.
Postmarket — Applied Materials reported Q4 revenue $6.80bn and non‑GAAP EPS $2.17 and guided Q1 FY26 revenue $6.85bn ±$0.50bn; Virgin Galactic posted Q3 revenue $0.4mn, $424mn cash/securities and reiterated commercial flight timing; Cabot declared a $0.45 quarterly dividend; Viasat reported successful HaloNet telemetry testing on New Glenn.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Conditional $NG=F — At 10:30 ET on 2025-11-14 when EIA storage prints: if working gas change < 0 (net withdrawal) go long front-month $NG=F; if working gas change > 0 (net injection) go short front-month $NG=F. Enter within 15 minutes of print; initial stop 3% adverse move.
EIA weekly storage is expected with wide survey range (withdrawal or modest injection). A negative print (withdrawal) typically tightens prompt balances and lifts prompt gas futures; a positive print eases balances and pressures prices. Use front-month futures for direct exposure to prompt curve moves.
Trade credibility: actionability 9 | timeliness 10 | clarity 10
2/3 Conditional $OIH — At 13:00 ET on 2025-11-14 when Baker Hughes releases U.S. rig count: if total rigs reported >= prior +5 (≥553) go long $OIH at market within 30 minutes; if total rigs <= prior −5 (≤543) go short $OIH at market within 30 minutes. Use stop 4% adverse…
Weekly Baker Hughes rig counts (prior total = 548) influence forward supply expectations and OFS equities. A meaningful weekly change (±5 rigs) signals directional activity for oilfield services and crude supply expectations; $OIH is a liquid OFS proxy to trade that signal into session.
Trade credibility: actionability 9 | timeliness 10 | clarity 9
3/3 Long $SOXX — Pre-market on 2025-11-14, buy $SOXX if APPLIED MATERIALS ($AMAT) reaction is positive (AMAT already guided Q1 FY26 revenue $6.85bn ±$0.5bn); enter market open if $AMAT pre-market price change > +1% and $SOXX shows corresponding > +0.5% pre-market move. Target 3–6% profit; stop 3%.
Applied Materials reported Q4 revenue $6.80bn and guided Q1 FY26 revenue $6.85bn ±$0.5bn, signaling WFE cycle expectations supportive for semicap stocks. A clear positive market reaction in AMAT pre-market should lift semiconductor-cap equipment peers and the $SOXX ETF into the early session.
Trade credibility: actionability 7 | timeliness 8 | clarity 7
The SOXX trade looks intresting given AMAT's guidance, but I'm curious about the entry threshold. A +1% pre-market move in AMAT seems like a high bar considerng recent semicap volatility. Have you found that waiting for such a clear signal reduces false breakouts, or does it sometimes mean missing the early momentum? The 3% stop makes sense for risk managment tho.