PickAlpha Morning Report | 2025-11-26 — 6 material moves and analysis
• Dollar index fell 0 5 to 99 75 — $UUP, $DXY • Dell raised Q4 revenue to 31 32B — $DELL, $NVDA • Autodesk beat Q3 and raised guidance — $ADSK, $MSFT • Etc..
Scope: filtered material news only (passed significance tests).
Method: in-house deep network reasoning + causal graphs → asset mapping → actions.
Authorship: compiled from model outputs; edited & written by senior buy-side researchers.
PickAlpha - Macro Events:
2025-11-26 Events Analysis -
US retail sales, PPI and confidence data miss forecasts, pushing dollar lower and December Fed cut odds higher | $UUP, $DXY, $SPY, $QQQ, $EURUSD=X, $BTC-USD
Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: bullish · Category: Macro/Rates/FX · Materiality: B (★★, 86)
Delayed U.S. data released on November 25 painted a softer macro picture: September retail sales rose just 0.20% month-on-month versus 0.40% expected after an unrevised 0.60% gain in August, signaling emerging consumer fatigue even as third-quarter GDP tracking stays solid. Producer prices were mixed but benign for policy: headline PPI advanced 0.30% in September, in line with forecasts, leaving 12‑month headline at 2.70%, while core PPI increased only 0.10% versus 0.20% consensus despite energy jumping roughly 3.5% and food about 1.1%, reinforcing a view of sticky but not accelerating pipeline inflation. Sentiment weakened more sharply, with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropping to 88.7 in November from a revised 95.5 in October, well below expectations near 93.4 and consistent with greater caution on big‑ticket spending. FX markets quickly reflected the data and recent dovish Fed commentary: the dollar index slipped about 0.50% to roughly 99.75, the euro firmed near 1.16, sterling gained close to 0.80%, and the dollar fell around 0.60% versus the yen to roughly 156 per dollar.
Action — BUY ON DIPS: Elevated December cut odds and softer consumer data favor long-duration growth versus the dollar.
The key variables are Fed policy expectations and U.S. consumer demand. Weaker retail sales, below-consensus core PPI and a sharp confidence drop have pushed implied odds of a 25 bp cut at the December FOMC meeting to about 83%, compressing yields and weakening the dollar via DXY and UUP, while supporting long-duration risk assets such as QQQ, SPY and BTC-USD. The mechanism is textbook: lower expected policy rates increase the present value of distant cash flows and improve financial conditions, even as softer nominal growth undermines cyclicals and bank earnings power. Upside versus downside skews modestly positive for growth and dollar shorts so long as the data trend does not morph into a hard-landing narrative. A concrete trigger would be another below-consensus consumer or inflation print before the December meeting, which would likely confirm the cut, extend dollar softness versus EURUSD=X and further bid up duration-sensitive indices, offering tactical buy-on-dip opportunities.
Source: Reuters • Time: 2025-11-25T15:56:00-05:00
PickAlpha - Company News:
2025-11-26 News Analysis:
Dell raises AI server revenue targets and beats Q4 guidance expectations, shares rise in after-hours trade | $DELL, $NVDA, $SMCI, $SMH, $SOXX, $SPY
Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: bullish · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: B (★★, 85)
Dell reported late on Nov. 25 and guided fourth-quarter revenue to $31–32 billion, well ahead of the roughly $27.6 billion Street consensus, with adjusted EPS of about $3.50 versus expectations near $3.21. Management said the growth skew is toward higher-priced infrastructure and AI gear rather than legacy PCs, easing fears that AI hardware demand is stalling. Dell lifted its fiscal 2026 AI server revenue target to about $25 billion from $20 billion and disclosed an $18.4 billion AI server backlog, driven by $12.3 billion of new orders and $5.6 billion of shipments. The company cited marquee AI customers including the U.S. Department of Energy, G42, xAI and CoreWeave, and emphasized tight integration with Nvidia accelerators, while confirming David Kennedy as permanent CFO. Executives flagged DRAM and NAND cost inflation but argued that demand currently exceeds supply, enabling price pass-through. Shares rose roughly 4% after hours, with positive read-throughs for Nvidia, Super Micro and AI-focused semiconductor ETFs such as SMH and SOXX.
Action — BUY ON DIPS: Buy on dips—Dell’s $31–32B Q4 guidance, $25B fiscal-2026 AI target and $18.4B backlog support upside despite near-term DRAM/NAND cost pressures.
Higher AI server guidance and an $18.4 billion backlog increase visibility into multi-quarter shipments, lifting expected cash flows and supporting earnings upgrades and potential multiple expansion for DELL, with second-order benefits for NVDA, SMCI and AI-heavy ETFs like SMH and SOXX. Tight memory and component supply raises DRAM/NAND costs, but current demand-supply imbalance gives Dell pricing power to pass through much of the inflation, cushioning margins and EPS. Upside dominates if backlog conversion stays on track and price realization offsets cost creep, reinforcing the AI infrastructure capex up-cycle into 2025–26. Downside stems from backlog delays or cancellations and a normalization in memory supply that undercuts pricing power, pressuring margins and sentiment across AI hardware. A concrete trigger would be the next earnings print confirming AI server revenue run-rate, backlog conversion and gross margin resilience versus today’s guidance.
Source: Reuters • Time: 2025-11-25T18:23:00-05:00
Autodesk beats Q3 expectations and hikes Q4 revenue and billings guidance on cloud and AI design demand | $ADSK, $MSFT, $IGV, $SPY, $QQQ
Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: bullish · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: B (★★, 82)
Autodesk reported strong Q3 results for the quarter ended October 31, with revenue of about $1.85 billion versus analyst expectations near $1.81 billion and adjusted EPS of roughly $2.67 versus consensus around $2.50, driven by resilient subscription renewals and higher usage of its design products across architecture, engineering and construction customers. Management guided Q4 revenue to $1.90–1.92 billion and adjusted EPS to $2.59–2.67, both ahead of prior estimates, and raised full-year billings guidance to $7.47–7.53 billion from about $7.36–7.45 billion on stronger multi-year commitments and broader adoption of its token-based access model. The company stressed that its cloud subscription shift is expanding recurring revenue and visibility as customers deploy Autodesk tools in large-scale, multi-year infrastructure, industrial and data center projects, and highlighted progress in integrating AI foundation models such as Project Bernini to partially automate 3D design and drafting workflows. Shares rose more than 5% in extended trading, with investors interpreting the beat and raise as support for design and construction software demand and a constructive read-through for peers and sector ETFs tied to digital-twin and CAD-intensive capex.
Action — BUY ON DIPS: Q3 beat, raised guidance and higher billings point to durable recurring growth with incremental AI/token monetization optionality.
Guidance upgrades for Q4 revenue and EPS, plus the lift in full-year billings to $7.47–7.53 billion, signal that higher recurring cloud subscriptions and longer-duration contracts are already translating into better revenue visibility, steadier cash flows and support for margins, which in turn can justify a higher or more resilient multiple for ADSK and, by read-through, design software exposure in MSFT and IGV. Growing token-based access and early AI feature adoption provide a path to higher average revenue per user via usage-driven upsell and pricing power as AI-assisted workflows move from pilots into standard operating practice. The upside case is that renewals stay resilient, token usage deepens and AI monetization gains traction, sustaining revenue and EPS beats and further re-rating. The downside risk is a turn in enterprise software budgets or slower-than-hoped AI monetization, which would weigh on billings growth and put the multiple at risk, also pressuring related ETFs like IGV and broad benchmarks such as QQQ and SPY. A concrete upside trigger would be another quarter of billings growth and ARPU expansion explicitly attributed to token and AI usage, confirming the monetization thesis.
Source: Reuters • Time: 2025-11-25T17:10:00-05:00
Zscaler beats on Q1 revenue and EPS and raises FY26 outlook, but modest guide lift triggers profit-taking | $ZS, $PANW, $CRWD, $FTNT, $HACK, $IGV
Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: mixed · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: B (★★, 81)
Zscaler reported fiscal Q1 results on Nov. 25 that beat expectations but triggered profit-taking after a strong year-to-date run. Revenue rose about 26% year-on-year to roughly $788.1 million, ahead of estimates near $773.8 million, while adjusted EPS of around $0.96 topped consensus of about $0.86, underscoring operating leverage as larger customers consolidate spend onto its zero-trust and AI-enhanced security platform through multi-year deals. Management modestly lifted FY26 revenue guidance to approximately $3.28–3.30 billion from $3.27–3.28 billion, but raised adjusted EPS guidance more meaningfully to about $3.78–3.82 from $3.64–3.68, reflecting a sharper margin-expansion focus. Despite secular SASE tailwinds and evidence of larger bundled platform deals, shares, up nearly 60% year-to-date, fell more than 7% in extended trading as investors fixated on the relatively small revenue guide lift, potential elongation in large-enterprise deal cycles, and a more cautious stance on 2026 IT security budgets, with read-across to high-multiple peers PANW, CRWD, FTNT and cybersecurity ETFs HACK and IGV.
Action — BUY ON DIPS: Q1 beats and EPS leverage support the story, but guidance and deal-cycle risk argue for selective entries
The investment case now hinges on whether strong Q1 execution and expanding margins can offset concerns about the pace of future top-line growth. Higher FY26 EPS guidance signals that operating leverage from multi-year, consolidated SASE and AI-driven security deals can drive cash flow and earnings even if revenue guidance remains conservative, supporting ZS and, by extension, quality cybersecurity leaders. However, if enterprise deal cycles continue to lengthen, delayed revenue recognition and cautious guidance could cap multiple expansion and pressure high-valuation names across the group. The key trigger to tilt the upside/downside balance is a subsequent quarter showing re-accelerating large-deal bookings and a more decisive FY26 revenue guidance upgrade, which would likely spur estimate revisions and a reversal of recent profit-taking.
Source: Reuters • Time: 2025-11-25T18:19:00-05:00
Kohl’s posts surprise Q3 profit and sharply raises FY2025 EPS outlook, stock surges over 30% | $KSS, $M, $JWN, $XRT, $SPY
Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: bullish · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: B (★★, 80)
Kohl’s reported Q3 results on Nov. 25 with an unexpected profit and better-than-feared sales, posting roughly $0.10 in adjusted EPS versus expectations for a small loss, while quarterly revenue modestly beat consensus. Management highlighted improved promotion execution, tighter inventory discipline and a more profitable mix of coupon-eligible merchandise as drivers heading into the key holiday quarter under its newly confirmed CEO. The company raised full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance for the second time this year to $1.25–1.45 from $0.50–0.80, implying a sharp shift from earlier near-breakeven scenarios, and narrowed its sales outlook to a 3.5–4.0% decline from a prior 5–6% drop, signaling stabilizing traffic and tickets. Shares jumped as much as 36% intraday and have more than doubled from levels when the CEO first took over in an interim role, reflecting short covering and a repricing of earnings power, while peers such as Macy’s gained around 7% on read-through for department stores and off-mall apparel retailers into December.
Action — BUY ON DIPS: Guidance reset and execution improvements materially reprice earnings; buy on weakness while monitoring December sales, margin metrics, and discounting trends for confirmation.
The raised FY2025 EPS range of $1.25–1.45, coupled with better merchandising execution and inventory discipline, tightens the spread between guidance and prior bear scenarios, directly supporting higher sustainable margins and free cash flow and, by extension, a higher multiple for KSS versus depressed historical levels. If December holiday sales confirm stabilizing demand and promotions remain rational, earnings revisions should migrate higher into FY2026, solidifying the rerating and keeping short interest under pressure. Conversely, any relapse into heavy discounting or a visible slowdown in traffic would quickly compress margins, undermining the upgraded guidance and risking a sharp giveback of recent gains. On balance, upside dominates given the operational momentum and still-cautious expectations for the category, but the position remains highly execution-sensitive. A concrete trigger to reassess risk-reward will be Kohl’s holiday update and early-Q1 commentary on ticket trends and promotional intensity for both KSS and peers such as M and JWN.
Source: Reuters • Time: 2025-11-25T14:17:00-05:00
US sanctions put Serbia’s sole NIS refinery on shutdown watch, raising regional fuel supply risks | $CL=F, $RB=F, $HO=F, $XLE, $USO
Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: mixed · Category: Commodities/Supply · Materiality: C (★, 78)
Serbia’s president warned on November 25 that the NIS oil refinery, the country’s only plant and majority-owned by Russian interests including Gazprom Neft and Gazprom, will cease operations within four days if U.S. sanctions are not eased, with the facility already on hot standby ahead of a likely shutdown. U.S. Treasury’s OFAC, which had previously granted waivers, is now pressing for full Russian divestment, giving roughly 90 days until mid-February for a sale, while Belgrade signals it will wait about 50 days before pursuing a state takeover and buyout. Sanctions that took effect in October have led banks to halt NIS payment processing and Croatia’s JANAF pipeline to stop crude shipments, restricting feedstock and finance. Official data show NIS holds about 55,000 tonnes of diesel and 50,000 tonnes of gasoline, supplemented by state reserves of 184,000 tonnes of diesel and 19,000 tonnes of gasoline plus planned imports, which together can cover demand only into late December, leaving the Balkans exposed to medium-term refined-product tightness.
Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: Monitor OFAC waiver outcomes, JANAF pipeline status, and inventory burn rates; localized refined-product tightness could lift RB=F/HO=F spreads while crude benchmarks may remain muted.
The key variables are the ownership divestment timeline and the restoration of payment channels and JANAF crude flows; if these remain blocked, NIS stays offline, Serbia leans harder on imports, and regional gasoline and diesel spreads likely widen, supporting RB=F, HO=F and refining cracks while CL=F and broad energy proxies like XLE and USO see only a modest geopolitical premium. Conversely, rapid divestment or targeted OFAC carve-outs would allow a restart from hot standby, keeping the current inventory and import buffers sufficient and containing price dislocations. With upside and downside finely balanced, a concrete trigger is any formal U.S. decision on new waivers or explicit secondary-sanctions guidance for counterparties dealing with NIS.
Source: Reuters • Time: 2025-11-25T08:36:00-05:00
Informational only; not investment advice. Sources deemed reliable.