PickAlpha Morning Report | 2025-11-20 — 8 material moves and analysis

• BLS cancels October jobs report — $SPY, $DX-Y.NYB • Bath Body Works cuts guidance after 250M plan — $BBWI, $XRT • South Sudan restarts crude exports at 97kbpd — $XLE • Etc..

Scope: filtered material news only (passed significance tests).
Method: in-house deep network reasoning + causal graphs → asset mapping → actions.
Authorship: compiled from model outputs; edited & written by senior buy-side researchers.

PickAlpha - Macro Events:

2025-11-20 Events Analysis -

U.S. cancels October 2025 jobs report after shutdown disrupts data collection, creating gap in key labor-market series | $ZN=F, $ZB=F, $DX-Y.NYB, $SPY

Immediacy: Overnight · Impact: bearish · Category: Policy/Reg · Materiality: B (★★, 84)

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said overnight that it will not publish the Employment Situation for October 2025 because the government shutdown prevented collection of the underlying survey data, so there will be no official October nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate or hourly earnings figures; the BLS judged data gaps too large for a statistically reliable release and chose to skip October rather than issue model-based imputations, will focus on resuming November operations and provide later methodological guidance (see September 2025 materials, news release USDL-25-1487). The cancellation removes a key data point ahead of FOMC deliberations and increases reliance on weekly jobless claims, household surveys and private payroll estimates, raising uncertainty for Fed assessment of the labor market and fixed-income positioning.

Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: Missing October jobs data increases near-term uncertainty; monitor alternative labor indicators and Fed communications before taking directional positions.

Variables → mechanism → asset: with BLS survey operations offline, reduced high-frequency inputs widen macro uncertainty and can raise risk premia, pressuring equity multiples and increasing bond volatility. Mechanism: fewer official payroll datapoints heighten reliance on alternative indicators, amplifying dispersion in trader expectations for the Fed and repricing across ZN=F/ZB=F, SPY and the dollar (DX-Y.NYB). Balance: downside skew > upside given trend assessment; equities and long-duration bonds face greater downside risk if alternative data are mixed or firmer than expected. Trigger: sustained softening in weekly jobless claims and private payrolls that coherently signal easing would be the concrete upside trigger to consider tactical long-equity/long-duration exposure.

Source: Reuters / U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics • Time: 2025-11-20T05:09:00-05:00

---

Fed October 28–29 FOMC minutes show debate over pace of further rate cuts after 25bp move to 3.75–4.00% range | $ZN=F, $ZB=F, $DX-Y.NYB, $SPY, $KRE

Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: mixed · Category: Policy/Reg · Materiality: B (★★, 83)

The Fed released minutes from its October 28–29, 2025 FOMC meeting showing a 25bp cut that set the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00% and a record of internal debate over the pace of further easing. Participants described policy as only modestly restrictive, noted growth headwinds from the prolonged government shutdown and tighter financial conditions, and recorded views ranging from openness to a larger 50bp move to advocates of a more gradual path. Many saw a further 25bp cut at the December 2025 meeting as likely if the economy tracks the staff forecast, while some argued for a pause should inflation or term premiums fail to ease; the Committee also reiterated its balance-sheet roll‑off plan and flagged higher term premiums in long Treasuries as a moderating factor for future cuts.

Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: Minutes are data‑dependent; monitor upcoming inflation, payrolls, term premiums and Fed commentary before trading rate‑sensitive assets

Variables → mechanism → asset: the pace of future cuts and disrupted near‑term inflation/labor data will determine whether policy eases quickly (25–50bp) or pauses; faster easing would lower short rates, compress Treasury yields, weaken the dollar and lift Treasury futures, SPY and KRE, while a pause or rising term premiums would keep yields higher, tighten conditions and pressure rate‑sensitive equities. Upside/downside balance: modestly skewed to upside if December delivers a 25bp cut and data soften, but downside risk persists if inflation or term premiums stay elevated. Concrete trigger: market reaction to December 2025 FOMC guidance and the next two CPI and payroll prints will decide directional positioning.

Source: Federal Reserve • Time: 2025-11-19T14:00:00-05:00

---

South Sudan resumes crude exports after drone attacks, ramping flows toward ~150kbpd via Sudan pipeline | $CL=F, $LCO=F, $XLE

Immediacy: Overnight · Impact: mixed · Category: EventRisk · Materiality: B (★★, 80)

Overnight reports say South Sudan has restarted crude exports after drone attacks on Sudanese facilities forced a temporary pipeline shutdown last week; local media and officials cite stabilization of affected sites and resumed flows to Port Sudan, with Dar Petroleum currently producing about 97,000 barrels per day and expected to ramp toward roughly 150,000 barrels per day as wells and infrastructure return to full capacity. The restart restores a key outlet for the landlocked producer and eases immediate fiscal and balance-of-payments stress, but officials warn security remains fragile along the single Sudan corridor and further attacks on pumping stations or pipeline segments could again interrupt shipments, sustaining a regional risk premium in benchmarks such as ICE Brent (LCO=F) and NYMEX WTI (CL=F).

Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: Monitor confirmation of volume normalization to ~150kbpd and any security incidents; both will quickly swing spreads and regional risk premia.

Variables → production ramp toward ~150,000 bpd and security risk to pipeline/pumping stations → mechanism: confirmed normalization reduces immediate supply tightness and prompts tightening of prompt spreads, while renewed attacks would widen spreads and raise insurance/transit costs → asset: short-term sensitivity in Brent/WTI futures and regional light sweet differentials (tickers LCO=F, CL=F, sector XLE). Balance: modest upside if volumes hold and security stabilizes versus meaningful downside from any renewed disruption; trigger: market-confirmed sustained exports at or near 150kbpd over several trading days.

Source: Radio Tamazuj / regional media • Time: 2025-11-20T00:00:00-05:00

---

Fed minutes: broad support to halt QT effective Dec 1; many opposed a December rate cut; discussion of shifting holdings to T-bills | $ZB=F, $ZN=F, $TLT, $IEF, $^TNX, $XLF

Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: bullish · Category: Policy/Reg · Materiality: B (★★, 88)

Minutes of the Oct 28–29 FOMC show almost all officials favored halting balance-sheet runoff (QT) effective Dec 1, earlier than market median expectations, with one official pressing for an immediate stop and later identified by a Fed governor; the minutes timestamp aligns with the release at 2:00 p.m. ET. Many policymakers opposed a December rate cut amid inflation concerns, and the balance-sheet discussion emphasized shifting SomA holdings toward Treasury bills to increase liquidity flexibility while noting the possibility of modest technical Treasury purchases not intended as policy easing. The Fed’s holdings stood around $6.6tn (down from a $9tn peak), making the Dec 1 halt a concrete catalyst for reserves, term premia and curve dynamics.

Action — BUY ON DIPS: Dec 1 QT halt and bill-shift materially reduces runoff risk and should support longer-duration bonds

Variables: balance_sheet_runoff_timeline and rate_cut_timing → Mechanism: halting QT and reallocating into T-bills preserves reserves and reduces term-premium pressure, which should lower longer-tenor yields and steepen the belly vs the front end. Asset implication: favorable for long-duration UST futures and ETFs (ZN=F, ZB=F, TLT, IEF) and supportive for bank proxies (XLF) via liquidity/SLR narratives. Upside outweighs downside given the concrete Dec 1 stop; downside is persistent inflation keeping cuts off. Trigger: weaker-than-expected inflation prints that increase probability of front-end easing and accelerate price appreciation in long-duration instruments.

Source: Reuters; Federal Reserve (FOMC minutes) • Time: 2025-11-19T16:10:00-05:00

---

U.S. Treasury 20-Year Bond auction (CUSIP 912810UQ9): high yield 4.706%, bid-to-cover 2.41; indirects ~59.5%, directs ~29.1% | $TLT, $IEF, $ZB=F, $ZN=F

Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: bullish · Category: Macro/Rates/FX · Materiality: B (★★, 82)

Result (Nov 19, 1:00 p.m. ET): Treasury accepted $16.00bn competitive plus $0.099bn noncompetitive, with SOMA adding $1.83bn for total accepted $17.83bn; settlement is Dec 1, 2025 and maturity Nov 15, 2045 (coupon 4-5/8%). The auction stop printed a high yield of 4.706% at a price of 98.954789 with 62.39% of awards at the high and a bid-to-cover of 2.41 ( $38.50bn tendered / $16.00bn competitive accepted). Demand mix showed indirects received $9.457bn (~59.5%), directs $4.635bn (~29.1%) and dealers $1.810bn (~11.4%), with Treasury Retail awards of $40.23mn. The print sits near recent secondary levels and, combined with healthy indirect participation and the modest SOMA add, provides a discrete read on duration sponsorship in the 20-year sector ahead of the Fed’s planned QT halt on Dec 1.

Action — BUY ON DIPS: Strong indirect participation and SOMA add support 20-year cash; buy on modest pullbacks ahead of upcoming coupon supply and Fed QT halt settlement.

Variables: indirect share (~59.5%), SOMA add ($1.83bn), upcoming coupon supply and Fed QT halt (Dec 1). Mechanism: sustained foreign/real-money demand absorbed the bulk of the $16bn issue plus SOMA, cushioning 20-year cash and anchoring yields near the 4.706% stop; conversely heavy follow-through selling into new coupons would force stop-throughs and wider 20s yields. Asset guidance: prefer long-20s exposure via TLT/IEF and ZB=F curve positioning. Upside outweighs downside given current indirect support but is contingent; trigger: a decisive post-settlement stop-through or bid-to-cover deterioration (e.g., BTC falling materially below 2.0) would shift risk toward downside and warrant trimming exposure.

Source: U.S. Treasury (Bureau of the Fiscal Service) • Time: 2025-11-19T13:00:00-05:00

---

EIA weekly petroleum: U.S. crude −3.4mn bbl w/w to 424.2mn (≈5% below 5-yr avg); gasoline +2.3mn; distillates mixed | $CL=F, $RB=F, $HO=F, $XLE, $OIH

Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: mixed · Category: Commodities/Supply · Materiality: B (★★, 80)

For the week ended Nov 14 (released Nov 19 at 10:30 a.m. ET) U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 3.4mn bbl to 424.2mn, roughly 5% below the five‑year average, reversing the prior week’s 6.4mn build and exceeding the Investing.com consensus of −0.6mn; gasoline stocks rose 2.3mn bbl (about 3% below the five‑year average) while distillates were mixed amid changing refinery inputs and utilization. The EIA highlights strong U.S. exports and ongoing refinery seasonality, and the mix—a sizable crude draw paired with a gasoline build—typically steepens WTI physical tightness and front‑month timespreads while flattening RBOB cracks, with sensitivity for CL=F, RB=F and HO=F and second‑order effects for XLE/OIH as margins and flows reprice.

Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: Contradictory signals—crude draw but gasoline build; await confirmation from next prints and regional flows

Variables → mechanism → asset: a larger‑than‑expected crude draw (−3.4mn bbl) tightens WTI physical balances and can steepen front‑month CL=F timespreads, supporting upstream cash flow and energy equities (XLE/OIH), while the concurrent +2.3mn gasoline build mutes RBOB (RB=F) cracks and limits net fuel‑market upside. Upside path: repeated draws with sustained exports and steady refinery throughput tighten CL=F and favor XLE/OIH. Downside path: recurring gasoline builds or regional PADD imbalances compress cracks and pressure RB=F/CL=F. Concrete trigger: add exposure only if next week’s inventories again show a material crude draw versus consensus and gasoline builds stabilize.

Source: U.S. EIA; Investing.com (consensus) • Time: 2025-11-19T10:30:00-05:00

---

PickAlpha - Company News:

2025-11-20 News Analysis:

NVIDIA posts record $57bn Q3 FY26 revenue and $1.30 EPS, guides Q4 revenue to ~$65bn as data center sales surge | $NVDA, $SMH, $SOXX, $QQQ, $SPY

Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: bullish · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: B (★★, 89)

NVIDIA reported Q3 FY26 revenue of $57.0 billion (up 22% q/q, 62% y/y) with GAAP diluted EPS of $1.30 versus $0.78 a year ago, driven by record Data Center sales of $51.2 billion (up 25% q/q, 66% y/y). GAAP operating income was $36.0 billion and net income $31.9 billion; gross margins were 73.4% GAAP and 73.6% non‑GAAP. Management guided Q4 revenue to $65.0 billion ±2% (roughly 14% sequential growth midpoint) with gross margins ~74.8% and reiterated capacity‑constrained demand for Blackwell GPUs. NVIDIA returned $37.0 billion in capital to shareholders YTD, has $62.2 billion remaining repurchase authority, and held $60.6 billion in cash and equivalents; a $0.01 quarterly dividend was declared (record Dec 4, 2025).

Action — BUY ON DIPS: Strong beat, high Q4 guide, record Data Center revenue and large buybacks support further upside; monitor capacity and opex signals closely.

Variables → Q4 revenue guide, Data Center demand/capacity for Blackwell, gross margins and R&D/go‑to‑market opex. Mechanism → beat‑and‑guide lifts near‑term EPS and cash flow expectations, capacity constraints sustain pricing power and margin expansion while aggressive buybacks amplify earnings per share; higher opex could temper free cash flow if sustained. Asset → NVDA equity and related semiconductors ETFs (SMH, SOXX) benefit from multiple expansion. Balance → upside favored given $65.0bn guide and 73–75% margin outlook; downside risk from supply/execution or demand shocks within 24 hours. Trigger → materially weaker supply or demand signals in next 24–72 hours that narrow guidance visibility.

Source: NVIDIA • Time: 2025-11-19T16:20:00-05:00

---

Bath & Body Works Q3 2025 misses, cuts Q4 and full-year guidance and launches $250mn cost-savings transformation plan | $BBWI, $XRT, $XLY

Immediacy: Overnight · Impact: mixed · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: B (★★, 85)

Bath & Body Works reported Q3 2025 net sales of $1,594 million, down 1% from $1,610 million a year ago, with diluted EPS of $0.37 versus $0.49 and adjusted EPS $0.35 after an $8 million pre‑tax gain; operating income fell to $161 million from $218 million and net income to $77 million from $106 million. Management cut Q4 guidance to a high single‑digit sales decline versus $2,788 million and set full‑year sales to a low single‑digit decline versus $7,307 million, with EPS now at least $2.83 and adjusted EPS at least $2.87; the company still assumes roughly $400 million of buybacks and about $650 million free cash flow. The new “Consumer First Formula” targets $250 million of cost savings over two years, over half expected in 2026, to fund product, brand and marketplace initiatives while acknowledging macro and tariff headwinds and a multi‑quarter rollout.

Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: Near‑term guidance cuts raise downside risk while $250M cost program offers optional upside if delivered on schedule

Variables: Q4 and full‑year guidance, realization of $250 million cost savings (>$125 million in 2026), same‑store sales recovery and tariff/macro pressure. Mechanism: missed savings or continued weak discretionary demand compresses margins, EPS and multiples; conversely, delivering targeted savings and modest SSS growth restores margin expansion, supports buybacks and improves free cash flow. Asset view: maintain a watchful stance on BBWI relative to XRT/XLY exposures; the risk/reward is mixed with near‑term downside. Trigger: materially exceeding >$125 million of cost savings in 2026 or an upward revision to Q4 EPS guidance would justify re‑engagement.

Source: Bath & Body Works / GlobeNewswire • Time: 2025-11-20T06:55:00-05:00

---

Informational only; not investment advice. Sources deemed reliable.