PickAlpha Morning Report | 2025-11-25 — 5 material moves and analysis

• Waller urges 25bp cut moving funds to 3 50 — $SPY, $QQQ • Kohl's boosts 2025 EPS guidance to 1 25 1 — $KSS, $M • DKS lifts fiscal 2025 EPS to mid- 14s — $DKS, $FL • Etc..

Scope: filtered material news only (passed significance tests).
Method: in-house deep network reasoning + causal graphs → asset mapping → actions.
Authorship: compiled from model outputs; edited & written by senior buy-side researchers.

PickAlpha - Macro Events:

2025-11-25 Events Analysis -

Fed’s Waller backs December quarter-point rate cut amid weak labor market and delayed data, futures now price ~83% odds of move | $SPY, $QQQ, $TLT, $DXY

Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: mixed · Category: Macro/Rates/FX · Materiality: B (★★, 89)

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the U.S. labor market has weakened enough to justify another 25 bp cut at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting, calling a move to a 3.50%–3.75% target range from 3.75%–4.00% the appropriate next step while keeping the post-December path data-dependent. He stressed that a 43-day government shutdown has left the Fed unusually information-constrained, with October jobs and CPI delayed and November data arriving only after the meeting, forcing heavier reliance on private indicators and the Beige Book. Waller highlighted anecdotal evidence of labor softening, downplayed the 119,000 September payroll gain, and noted unemployment has already ticked up to 4.4%, arguing labor deterioration is a bigger near-term risk than re-accelerating inflation. Markets reacted quickly: CME FedWatch now prices roughly an 83% probability of a 25 bp December cut, about double last week, while keeping odds for a follow-on move at the January 27–28 meeting and beyond more uncertain as officials pivot to a meeting-by-meeting stance.

Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: A December cut is heavily priced (~83%) but forward Fed path is data- and revision-dependent

For SPY and QQQ, a December 25 bp cut that takes policy to 3.50%–3.75% supports long-duration growth and high-multiple tech if private indicators and, later, official BLS releases confirm labor softening and disinflation, keeping discount rates drifting lower. That same path is constructive for TLT via lower front-end yields and a flatter curve, and marginally negative for DXY as rate differentials compress. However, delayed and potentially noisy jobs and CPI data create asymmetric event risk: any upside surprise or adverse revision that casts doubt on a follow-up move in January would re-steepen the front end, pressure TLT, and compress valuations in QQQ and other long-duration equities. With upside and downside broadly balanced, the key trigger to watch is the first full set of revised BLS jobs and CPI prints once the shutdown backlog clears, which will likely reset expectations for the early-2026 path on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

Source: Reuters • Time: 2025-11-24T17:56:00-05:00

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Oil settles ~1% higher as traders price in December Fed cut and doubt Ukraine peace will rapidly lift Russian exports | $CL=F, $BZ=F, $XLE, $XOP

Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: bullish · Category: Commodities/Supply · Materiality: B (★★, 82)

Oil futures rebounded, with front-month Brent crude settling up about 84 cents, or roughly 1.3%, at $63.37 per barrel and U.S. WTI gaining about 75 cents, also ~1.3%, to around $58.84, led by heavy trading in the benchmark CL=F and BZ=F contracts that underpin pricing for energy equities and U.S. E&P credit. The move tracked a sharp swing in Fed expectations after dovish commentary from Governor Waller and others pushed futures-implied odds of a December 25 bp rate cut into the low-80% range, lowering the expected path for real rates, easing recession fears, and drawing fresh length into cyclicals and energy producers leveraged to 2026–27 demand. At the same time, traders doubt that current Ukraine peace efforts will quickly unlock a surge in Russian exports, as Western sanctions continue to constrain major producers and intermediaries, keeping a war-risk premium embedded in Brent spreads. Additional or tightened U.S. sanctions on Russian oil firms and certain Venezuelan actors are adding operational friction and compliance risk, nudging buyers toward benchmark-linked barrels and supporting differentials for U.S. Gulf Coast and North Sea grades, with positive knock-on effects for crack spreads and refinery margins.

Action — BUY ON DIPS: Likely December Fed cut plus persistent Russian export friction puts a floor under crude, favoring higher-beta U.S. E&Ps and oilfield services—buy on dips while monitoring Fed and supply signals.

For CL=F, BZ=F and related equities such as XLE and XOP, the key variables are Fed December 25 bp cut odds and the pace of any Russian export normalization. A confirmed cut would suppress real yields, support global growth expectations, and channel flows into higher-beta energy names, while ongoing sanctions and logistical frictions delay incremental Russian volumes, preserving a war-risk premium in Brent spreads and supporting Gulf Coast and North Sea differentials, crack spreads, and cash flows for U.S. E&Ps and oilfield services. With trend assessment skewed UP > DOWN, upside dominates if the Fed delivers in December and Ukraine peace fails to unlock rapid Russian supply, lifting crude and sector earnings leverage. Downside risk is a hawkish Fed pivot or a faster-than-expected restoration of Russian exports, which would erode spreads and margins and pressure energy beta. A concrete trigger to watch is the next Fed communications set and futures-implied probability shift around the December meeting, which will likely dictate the durability of the current floor in crude and energy equities.

Source: Reuters • Time: 2025-11-24T17:40:36-05:00

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PickAlpha - Company News:

2025-11-25 News Analysis:

Fulton Financial to acquire Blue Foundry Bancorp in $243 million all-stock community-bank merger, paying 47% premium | $FULT, $BLFY, $KRE

Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: bullish · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: B (★★, 81)

Fulton Financial Corporation and Blue Foundry Bancorp agreed to a definitive all-stock merger in which each Blue Foundry share will be exchanged for 0.6500 Fulton shares, valuing Blue Foundry at about $11.67 per share, or roughly $243 million based on Fulton’s $17.96 close on November 21, a 47% premium to Blue Foundry’s last unaffected price. The transaction, unanimously approved by both boards, is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026 pending U.S. banking regulatory approvals and a Blue Foundry stockholder vote, after which Blue Foundry Bank will merge into Fulton Bank, N.A., expanding Fulton’s presence in northern New Jersey. Fulton guides to more than 5% EPS accretion in the first full year, immediate tangible book value accretion, and neutral regulatory capital at closing, driven by scale in attractive local markets, cross-selling across a broader branch network, and spreading technology and compliance costs. Blue Foundry holders rotate into a roughly $32 billion-asset regional franchise via a fixed exchange ratio, while Fulton will contribute $1.5 million to the Fulton Forward Foundation for New Jersey nonprofits.

Action — BUY ON DIPS: Deal-led EPS and TBV accretion with footprint expansion, tempered by execution and regulatory timing risk

The key variables are FULT’s share price into Q2 2026 and the pace of regulatory approval and integration. With a fixed 0.6500 exchange, BLFY’s takeout value rises or falls directly with FULT, while Fulton issues equity to fund the $243 million deal and capture >5% EPS accretion and immediate TBV accretion through cost saves and revenue scale in northern New Jersey. On balance, upside dominates if approvals are routine and synergies track guidance, supporting multiple expansion for FULT and a tightening BLFY spread as closing visibility improves. Downside risk stems from regulatory delay, integration slippage, or sector-wide pressure on regional bank valuations that would dilute the accretion story and drag the pair lower. A concrete trigger to watch is formal regulatory acceptance and subsequent approval milestones; clean progress there should compress the BLFY discount to implied deal value and underpin buy-the-dip entries in FULT and KRE-linked exposure.

Source: Fulton Financial / Blue Foundry (PR Newswire) • Time: 2025-11-24T08:45:00-05:00

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Kohl’s shares surge ~28% after second 2025 guidance hike: narrower sales decline and sharply higher EPS outlook | $KSS, $M, $XRT

Immediacy: Overnight · Impact: bullish · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: B (★★, 84)

Kohl’s raised its full-year fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.25–$1.45 from $0.50–$0.80, citing stronger-than-expected demand ahead of the key holiday season and early progress on its merchandise and branding reset. The company also tightened its sales outlook, now seeing annual sales down 3.5%–4.0% versus a previously guided 5%–6% decline, signaling a narrower top-line contraction in a challenged mid-tier department-store segment. For the latest quarter, Kohl’s reported net sales of $3.41 billion versus about $3.32 billion expected, with upside driven by stronger traffic and baskets from coupon-eligible brands, expanded in-house labels, and incremental Sephora shop-in-shop traffic. This is the second 2025 guidance hike under newly confirmed CEO Michael Bender, bolstering the credibility of the turnaround narrative and management’s claim that the assortment shift and promotional strategy can stabilize comps and rebuild margins. Market reaction was forceful: Kohl’s shares jumped roughly 28% in early trading, while Macy’s gained about 5%, as investors reassessed solvency risk, tightened credit spreads, and re-rated the equity, with implications for department-store weights in broader retail ETFs such as XRT.

Action — BUY ON DIPS: Guidance hike, sales beat and share re-rating suggest durable upside and renewed capital inflows; buy on dips while monitoring holiday comps, subsequent EPS revisions and credit spreads for reversal signs.

A materially higher EPS guide and a narrower sales decline indicate improving cash generation from stronger traffic, higher-turnover coupon-addressable assortments, and Sephora-driven beauty traffic. This supports margin repair and reduces credit risk, which in turn justifies tighter spreads and multiple expansion as long-only and hedge-fund capital rotates back into KSS, with positive read-through for peers like M and retail ETFs such as XRT. With the stock already up about 28%, near-term risk-reward skews to tactical pullbacks, but the fundamental trend assessment is UP > DOWN given rising visibility on a numbers-backed recovery versus prior distressed or M&A scenarios. Upside depends on holiday demand holding, sustaining sequential sales beats and prompting further EPS upgrades. A credible downside path is a reversal in traffic or heavier promotions that compress margins and force guidance cuts, widening spreads and retracing the recent equity re-rating. A concrete trigger to reassess the thesis will be holiday-quarter comps and margin commentary in the next earnings print.

Source: Reuters • Time: 2025-11-25T07:46:00-05:00

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Dick’s Sporting Goods Q3 2025 sales jump ~36% on Foot Locker acquisition; company lifts 2025 guidance for core DICK’S business | $DKS, $FL, $XRT

Immediacy: Overnight · Impact: mixed · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: B (★★, 83)

Dick’s Sporting Goods reported Q3 2025 net sales of about $4.17 billion, up roughly 36% from approximately $3.06 billion a year earlier, largely reflecting consolidation of newly acquired Foot Locker operations alongside solid legacy DICK’S performance. Non-GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations was about $2.07 versus roughly $2.75, with the decline driven by acquisition-related charges, while non-GAAP EPS for the standalone DICK’S business was about $2.78, slightly above last year. GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations dropped to approximately $0.86 from about $2.75 as the company absorbed sizeable transaction and integration expenses tied to the Foot Locker deal, and management guided to several hundred million dollars of front-loaded pre-tax integration and restructuring charges over 2025–2026. Reflecting a stronger combined sales base and outperformance in the core franchise, Dick’s raised fiscal 2025 guidance, now expecting mid-single-digit consolidated comparable-store sales growth, DICK’S standalone comp growth of roughly 2%–2.5%, and non-GAAP diluted EPS for the DICK’S business in the mid-$14s per share, with consolidated EPS guidance incorporating the drag from Foot Locker integration costs.

Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: Core DICK’S outperformance and higher non-GAAP EPS guidance contrast with heavy front-loaded integration charges that will depress GAAP earnings and keep execution risk elevated.

Front-loaded integration and restructuring charges of several hundred million dollars will suppress GAAP earnings, pressure near-term cash flow and potentially weigh on leverage metrics for DKS, constraining valuation and index-driven demand in vehicles such as XRT even as the revenue base steps up post- Foot Locker acquisition. Against this, the standalone DICK’S business is guiding to mid-$14s non-GAAP EPS and 2%–2.5% comps, implying margin expansion as synergies from store consolidation, supply-chain optimization and merchandising accrue, with scope for multiple expansion if execution is clean. Upside rests on management delivering synergies on schedule and confirming that DICK’S standalone trajectory holds, while downside centers on integration costs overshooting the “several hundred million” range or synergy timing slipping, which would extend GAAP EPS compression through 2025–2026 and risk a de-rating for DKS and read-across pressure to FL and athletic-footwear peers. A concrete trigger would be the next two quarterly prints, where investors should track realized integration charges versus plan and early evidence of synergy capture before increasing exposure.

Source: Dick’s Sporting Goods (PR Newswire) • Time: 2025-11-25T07:00:00-05:00

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Informational only; not investment advice. Sources deemed reliable.