PickAlpha Morning Report | 2026-02-09 — 7 material moves and analysis
• Japanese equities rally lifts ETFs to records — $EWJ, $DXJ • FedEx and Advent agree 7 8B InPost takeover — $FDX, $SPY • Apollo posts 938B AUM and 0 51 dividend — $APO, $XLF • Etc..
Scope: filtered material news only (passed significance tests).
Method: in-house deep network reasoning + causal graphs → asset mapping → actions.
Authorship: compiled from model outputs; edited & written by senior buy-side researchers.
PickAlpha - Macro Events:
2026-02-09 Events Analysis -
Japan equities hit all-time high and yen whipsaws after PM Takaichi’s election win and stimulus signals | $EWJ, $DXJ, $JPY=X, $SPY
Immediacy: Overnight · Impact: bullish · Category: Macro/Rates/FX · Materiality: B (★★, 84)
Overnight on Feb. 9, Japanese equities, led by the Nikkei 225, surged to fresh record highs after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election victory and signals of “responsible, proactive” fiscal stimulus. Super‑long Japanese government bonds initially weakened but later stabilized as investors judged additional spending unlikely to force an imminent shift in Bank of Japan yield‑curve control. In FX, the yen briefly hit a record low versus the Swiss franc before rebounding after Tokyo officials warned about possible intervention, highlighting policy‑driven volatility across JPY funding crosses.
Action — BUY ON DIPS: Prefer adding EWJ, DXJ on pullbacks amid supportive stimulus and BOJ gradualism.
From here, the balance of risks favors further upside in Japan equities, particularly via EWJ and DXJ, as credible fiscal stimulus would support earnings while anchored super‑long JGB yields keep discount rates contained. For dollar‑based investors, a still‑weak but intervention‑capped yen can allow local‑currency gains to translate into acceptable USD returns, though FX whipsaws argue against chasing strength. A key trigger is the unveiling of Takaichi’s detailed stimulus package; strong, growth‑oriented measures without destabilizing JGB moves would likely extend rotation from SPY mega‑cap tech into Japanese cyclicals.
Source: Reuters • Time: 2026-02-09
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent signals Fed likely to take up to a year on balance-sheet decisions | $ZN=F, $ZB=F, $UUP, $SPY
Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: bullish · Category: Macro/Rates/FX · Materiality: C (★, 75)
On Feb. 8, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he does not expect the Federal Reserve to move quickly to shrink its balance sheet, even if Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh is confirmed. Speaking on Fox News, he suggested the Fed could take at least a year to decide how to manage its portfolio and reserve regime. Bessent stressed that the choice between an ample‑reserves framework and a smaller balance sheet rests with the Fed, implicitly backing a gradual, patient approach to any renewed quantitative tightening.
Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: QT risk is lower but Fed balance-sheet strategy remains unsettled.
Bessent’s endorsement of a patient, ample‑reserves‑friendly stance lowers the perceived probability of rapid quantitative tightening, anchoring expectations for long‑term yields and term premia. If markets assume balance‑sheet runoff will remain slow even under Warsh, duration assets such as Treasury futures ZN=F and ZB=F should benefit from more stable yields, while rate‑sensitive equities in SPY gain support from easier financial conditions. Conversely, any signal from Warsh or core Fed officials that they favor faster runoff would likely push yields higher, pressure duration and compress equity multiples while lending support to the dollar index UUP. The key trigger is Warsh’s confirmation process and his initial communications on the preferred reserve framework and runoff pace.
Source: Reuters • Time: 2026-02-08T10:49:00-05:00
PickAlpha - Company News:
2026-02-09 News Analysis:
Advent- and FedEx-led consortium to acquire InPost in €7.8bn all-cash take-private at €15.60 per share | $FDX, $SPY
Immediacy: Overnight · Impact: mixed · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: A (★★★, 92)
A consortium led by Advent International and FedEx agreed to acquire Polish parcel locker operator InPost in an all‑cash take‑private, valuing the company at about €7.8bn. The offer, structured as a recommended public tender, has been endorsed by InPost’s board and already has indications of support from a significant portion of the free float. The buyer group includes Advent, FedEx, A&R Investments and PPF Group. InPost will be delisted but retain its brand, Polish headquarters and current chief executive to pursue a European expansion strategy in parcel lockers and last‑mile delivery.
Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: Strategic upside balanced by regulatory, timing and integration risks for FedEx exposure
From an investment perspective, the deal underscores FedEx’s push to deepen its European e‑commerce footprint while sharing risk with financial sponsors, but the impact on the stock and broader equity benchmarks looks balanced near term. If approvals proceed smoothly and InPost executes on volume growth and efficiency gains, FedEx could eventually capture meaningful last‑mile cost savings and improved network utilization, supporting margins and sentiment. Conversely, extended antitrust or foreign‑investment reviews, weaker growth or integration challenges could raise concerns about capital deployment. The key trigger to watch is progress through European regulatory approvals.
Source: Reuters • Time: 2026-02-09T01:33:00-05:00
Apollo reports record 2025 origination and inflows, declares Q4 dividend of $0.51 per share | $APO, $XLF, $SPY
Immediacy: Overnight · Impact: bullish · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: B (★★, 88)
Apollo Global Management reported full‑year results showing record origination activity and inflows across its credit and equity platforms, which management said drove record fee‑related and spread‑related earnings and a sharp increase in assets under management versus the prior year. The board declared a cash dividend of $0.51 per common share for the latest quarter, while also approving a distribution on its mandatory convertible preferred stock, and reiterated that future payouts remain subject to board discretion. Apollo will host an earnings webcast this morning to review quarterly and annual performance, capital deployment, and its positioning as a leading provider of private credit and retirement solutions.
Action — BUY ON DIPS: Use volatility around the webcast to add exposure backed by stronger earnings.
Record origination, inflows and AUM growth enlarge Apollo’s fee‑generating base, supporting higher fee and spread earnings that can fund dividends, buybacks and new investment strategies, which in turn should underpin a higher equity valuation if activity proves durable. However, a more volatile, tighter macro backdrop could slow deal flow and fundraising, compressing earnings visibility and leading investors to treat the latest year as a cyclical peak. The earnings webcast this morning is the key near‑term trigger: confirmation that pipelines remain healthy and management is comfortable sustaining the $0.51 common dividend would support upside for APO and, at the margin, sentiment across listed alternative managers, while any sign of softening demand or a less secure payout could drive multiple contraction and near‑term underperformance.
Source: Apollo / GlobeNewswire • Time: 2026-02-09T06:30:00-05:00
SpaceX prioritizes building “self‑growing city” on the Moon and folds xAI into $1tn valuation deal | $ARKX, $SPY
Immediacy: Last Day · Impact: mixed · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: B (★★, 85)
SpaceX has reportedly shifted its top strategic priority to building a “self‑growing city” on the Moon, aiming to establish a permanent lunar presence before pursuing a Mars settlement. The pivot, framed as driven by speed and geopolitical rivalry with China, includes a target for an initial uncrewed lunar landing and suggests an acceleration of Starship launch activity and lunar infrastructure planning. In parallel, Elon Musk confirmed that SpaceX agreed to acquire his AI company xAI in a deal valuing SpaceX at about $1tn, consolidating AI technology and cash flows under the SpaceX umbrella.
Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: Indirect, long-dated impact on ARKX and SPY with execution and financing risks.
For public investors, the Moon‑first strategy and xAI integration point to structurally higher long‑term demand for launch services, satellite communications, and AI infrastructure, but with indirect, sentiment‑driven transmission into ARKX and broad indices such as SPY. If the next earnings update for major ARKX holdings highlights firming backlogs or design wins tied to lunar missions or AI compute, multiples and fund flows could grind higher. Conversely, any signs of slippage in SpaceX timelines, strained financing, or pushback on private valuations could dampen enthusiasm and weigh on space‑themed ETFs and related hardware, satellite, or semiconductor names.
Source: Reuters • Time: 2026-02-08T18:43:00-05:00
Sohu.com swings to large Q4 profit on $285m tax reversal; Q4 revenue $142m, FY2025 revenue $584m | $SOHU, $KWEB, $FXI
Immediacy: Overnight · Impact: mixed · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: C (★, 78)
Sohu.com reported unaudited fourth-quarter results overnight, with total revenue growing year over year but falling sequentially as weakness in marketing services offset relatively resilient online game performance tied to its Changyou franchises. A major swing factor was the reversal of approximately 285 million of previously accrued withholding income tax related to Changyou, which turned a prior-year loss into sizable GAAP and non-GAAP profits and pushed non-GAAP earnings to the high end of earlier guidance ranges. Full-year revenue declined modestly, though profitability improved on cost controls and the tax benefit.
Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: Tax-driven earnings spike and mixed revenue trends warrant patience pending management guidance.
From an investment standpoint, the results are mixed because the earnings inflection is driven largely by a non-recurring tax reversal rather than a clear acceleration in underlying demand. If investors strip out this benefit and still gain confidence that game revenue can hold roughly stable after recent content updates while marketing services finds a floor, the stronger balance sheet could support a modest re-rating for the shares. Conversely, focus on sequential revenue pressure and structural headwinds in Chinese advertising could lead the market to discount the profit spike. The next earnings update, and related commentary on game sustainability and capital allocation, is the key trigger.
Source: Sohu / PRNewswire • Time: 2026-02-09T00:00:00-05:00
Cleveland-Cliffs posts Q4 2025 loss of $235m on flat $4.3bn revenue; FY2025 revenue $18.6bn with $1.4bn net loss | $CLF, $X, $SLX, $SPY
Immediacy: Overnight · Impact: mixed · Category: CorpActions · Materiality: C (★, 72)
Cleveland-Cliffs reported fourth-quarter results showing flat consolidated revenue year on year but a narrower net loss versus the prior period, helped by cost reductions and contract repricing. For the full year, revenue slipped modestly while the overall net loss widened as weaker auto production, the expiry of a slab contract and persistent Canadian market headwinds dragged on profitability despite a supportive U.S. trade backdrop. Operationally, steel shipments were stable, and management emphasized footprint optimization, exits from non-core assets, lower capital spending and extended debt maturities.
Action — CAUTIOUSLY OBSERVE: Losses offset improving trends; wait for clearer demand and POSCO deal visibility.
For CLF and steel-linked ETFs, the print is mixed: improving quarterly trajectory and visible cost actions are constructive, but sustained losses and softer end-markets limit conviction. Cash flow and leverage will hinge on whether auto and infrastructure demand firms enough for higher volumes and lower unit costs to translate into durable margin recovery, supporting gradual de-risking of the balance sheet. Conversely, if demand disappoints or savings underdeliver, fixed-cost absorption could remain weak and equity multiples come under pressure. A definitive POSCO partnership decision in the first half of 2026 is the key trigger to reassess positioning.
Source: TradingView / Company • Time: 2026-02-09
Informational only; not investment advice. Sources deemed reliable.