PickAlpha Weekend - Look Into Next Week! 2025-11-02

What actually priced this week, and what likely prices next.

Weekly Recap

U.S. rates and the dollar dominated price action despite a late-week Fed move: benchmark 10Y yields ended the week near 3.89% (+10 bps) while the 2Y finished about 3.70% (+12 bps), leaving the 2s10s around +19 bps. That came alongside a DXY gain of 0.9% to 99.80 and VIX trading 15.6–18.5. Policy headlines mattered — the Fed cut the funds range 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% and announced a Dec 1 QT wind‑down — but sizable Treasury supply estimates ($590B Q4 marketable) and front‑end volatility kept term premia and USD upside pressure, transmitting to lower commodity prices (WTI ~$60.98, Brent ~$64.77) and mixed risk‑asset returns.

Policy and trade shifts also reshaped sector flows. A U.S.–China truce and a one‑year pause on rare‑earth export controls reduced near‑term supply risk for magnet/EV chains while OPEC+ signaled a modest December increase of ~137 kb/d then a Q1 pause, limiting oil downside. Corporate news guided equity dispersion: Apple reported $102.5B revenue and Amazon raised Q4 sales/operating income guidance (Q4 sales $206–213bn; AWS +20% YoY), while Berkshire’s cash stockpile (~$381.7B) and multiple M&A/activist bids (e.g., Novartis’ $72/share Avidity offer) lifted deal‑flow alpha into biotech, semis, and industrials. Net: macro rates/FX set cross‑asset backdrop; policy and large corporate prints supplied idiosyncratic sector drivers with clear numeric anchors (10Y 3.89%; Fed −25 bp; OPEC+ +137 kb/d).

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Mon–Fri macro prints (Treasury refunding, ISM PMI, JOLTS, ISM Services, EIA crude, FOMC minutes, jobless claims, nat‑gas storage, payrolls) will reprice term premia and USD direction established this week. Large Q4 refunding details (Mon) could push the 10Y toward or above 4.30% if supply surprises on the upside; an ISM/services beat (PMI ≥50.5; Prices ≥55) or stronger-than-expected NFP (≥175k) would sustain dollar and yields, while a crude draw (Δ ≤ −2.0M bbl) would tighten oil and support XLE.

Company Look

Earnings cadence (ON, PLTR, UBER, AMD, MCD, QCOM, HOOD, ABNB, COP) will provide cross‑sector impulses. Semiconductor reads (ON, AMD, QCOM) will update EV/SiC and AI/handset demand; beats above the listed thresholds (ON rev ≥ $2.1B; AMD GM ≥52%; QCOM EPS ≥ $2.85) should lift SOXX and related suppliers, while energy names (COP prod ≥2.35 mboe/d) and travel (ABNB rev ≥ $4.4B) will drive industry index rotations.

Next Week Material Moves to Watch

- Mon 08:30 ET — Treasury Quarterly Refunding — 10Y ≥ 4.30% → $SPY, $TLT, $DXY.
- Wed 10:30 ET — EIA crude inventories — Crude Δ ≤ -2.0M bbl → $CL=F, $XLE.
- Fri 08:30 ET — Employment Situation — NFP ≥ 175k; AHE ≥ 0.3% → $SPY, $DXY.