PickAlpha Weekend - Look Into Next Week! | 2026-04-11
1) Weekly Recap • 2) Look Into Next Week | Watchlist: $SPY $TLT $XLF $DXY $SOXX $QQQ $GS $JPM $BLK $ASML $MS $BAC $ITB $USO $XLE $FXI $EEM $TSM
Weekly Recap
At a glance — Key events
• Ceasefire crushed oil risk premium; WTI -13.4% drove $XLE -3.9% and eased inflation beta for $SPY.
• Hot March CPI at 3.3% y/y and 0.9% m/m tightened policy expectations across $TLT, $SPY, $UUP.
• AWS AI revenue “>$15B” run-rate and TSMC’s 35% y/y growth reinforced AI-capex leadership in $SOXX, $QQQ.
• Treasury sold $39B 10Y and $22B 30Y, both tailing 0.2 bp, keeping term premium sticky for $TLT.
Risk assets rallied alongside a sharp collapse in energy premia and slightly lower yields. The S&P 500 gained 3.6% and Nasdaq 4.7%, while WTI fell 13.4% to $96.57 and DXY dropped 1.6% to 98.65. A two‑week U.S.–Iran ceasefire drove WTI -16.4% on Wednesday, lifting $SPY even as $XLE lagged. At the same time, Treasury’s $39B 10Y and $22B 30Y auctions tailed 0.2 bp with bid-to-cover ratios near 2.4x, tempering further duration relief for $TLT.
Macro data and policy messaging stayed inflation-focused. March CPI rose 0.9% m/m and 3.3% y/y, with gasoline up 21.2%, reinforcing near-term price pressure across $SPY, $QQQ, $TLT, and $UUP. Weekly jobless claims printed 219k while continuing claims fell to 1.794M, leaving the labor signal mixed. FOMC minutes from the 3.50%–3.75% hold emphasized two‑sided rate risk, moderating expectations for imminent cuts. Outside the U.S., the RBNZ held its OCR at 2.25% with a conditional tightening bias, and CMS’s finalized 2.48% 2027 Medicare Advantage rate brightened the medium‑term earnings outlook for $XLV constituents.
Look Into Next Week
Macro Look
Next week concentrates on inflation follow‑through, global growth, and central‑bank signaling. PPI, China’s Q1 data, and U.S. activity prints frame growth versus inflation,
