PickAlpha Weekend - Look Into Next Week! | 2026-03-14
1) Weekly Recap • 2) Look Into Next Week | Watchlist: $SPY $TLT $DXY $QQQ $XRT $XLY $XLI $DLTR $IEF $WSM $CL=F $XLE $MU $SMH $BABA $KWEB $FXI $ACN •
Weekly Recap
At a glance — Key events
• Brent +11.3% to $103.14 on Hormuz/Iran war risk, pressuring Nasdaq -1.3% — $CL, $XLE, $QQQ
• January core PCE +0.4% m/m, ~3.1% y/y re-firmed front-end; 2Y +17 bps — $TLT, $SPY, $UUP
• $39B 10Y at 4.217% and $22B 30Y at 4.871% lifted term premium; 10Y +13 bps — $TLT, $IEF, $DXY
• S&P 500 -1.6% while IG/HY OAS widened ~4 bps; VIX closed 27.2 — $SPY, $HYG, $VIX
Oil and rates jointly drove risk this week. WTI rose 8.6% to $98.71 and Brent 11.3% to $103.14 despite a 400M‑barrel IEA reserve release, as Hormuz disruption and Iran war headlines lifted the inflation risk premium and favored $XLE over growth benchmarks. At the same time, January core PCE at +0.4% m/m (~3.1% y/y) and CPI at 2.4% y/y, alongside firm product draws, kept the “higher-for-longer” narrative alive and underpinned a 1.5% gain in DXY, pressuring $QQQ and $IWM.
On rates, a $39B 10Y auction at 4.217% and $22B 30Y at 4.871%, both with 2.45 bid-to-cover, reinforced term-premium pressure; 2Y yields rose 17 bps and 10Y 13 bps, flattening 2s10s by ~4 bps and weighing on $TLT. Equities de-rated: S&P 500 -1.6%, Nasdaq -1.3%, Russell 2000 -1.8%, with software underperforming despite solid AI-related prints from Oracle (cloud +46%–50% guide) and Adobe ($6.40B revenue, $26.06B ARR). Credit widened modestly (HY OAS to 317 bps) while VIX ranged 24.7–35.3, closing at 27.2, consistent with tighter but orderly conditions.
Look Into Next Week
Macro Look
Next week is dominated by central banks and the Fed, with global policy (BoC, SNB, BoE and FOMC) steering rates and USD, while UST auctions and energy balances (EIA) test term premia, real yields, and inflation expectations across $TLT, $DXY and risk assets.
• Central-bank decisions (FOMC SEP; BoE; BoC; SNB, scores 98/90/86/82) drive policy path→front-end yields→equity multiples; $TLT, $DXY, $SPY
• UST supply (20Y and 10Y TIPS auctions, scores 87+82=169) drives term premia→real yields→duration risk; $TLT, $TIP, $DXY
• Energy balances (EIA, score 84) drive crude inventories→inflation expectations→rates and energy equities; $CL=F, $XLE, $TLT
Company Look
Next week is sector-dispersion driven, not pure index beta, with earnings clustered in US discount/upscale consumer, transports, and global/AI IT services and semis. The focus is on how consumer spending, freight volumes, and AI/corporate IT budgets hold up after oil’s ~8.6% weekly rise and higher yields.
• Consumer staples/value retail (Dollar Tree, numeric anchor: N/A) → discount traffic and margins→defensive vs broad retail expectations→$DLTR, $XRT, $SPY
• Discretionary and freight earnings (WSM, DRI, FDX; numeric anchor: N/A) → comps/traffic/volumes→macro-demand read‑through→cyclicals vs defensives in $XLY, $IYT, $SPY
• Tech/AI and China platform earnings (MU, ACN, BABA; numeric anchor: N/A) → AI memory/IT/cloud growth→software and semis sentiment→$QQQ, $SMH, IGV 0.00%↑
Informational only; not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.