PickAlpha Weekend - Look Into Next Week! | 2026-04-18

1) Weekly Recap • 2) Look Into Next Week | Watchlist: $SPY $TLT $DXY $ITA $SOXX $IEF $XLI $QQQ $XLE $VGK $CL=F $NG=F $UNG $TIP $MMM $RTX $TSLA $BA •

Weekly Recap

At a glance — Key events
• Hormuz reopening drove Friday WTI -11.45%, lifting $SPX +1.20% and small caps while pressuring $XLE.
• March PPI +0.5% m/m vs 1.1% est eased front-end fears, supporting $TLT and weighing on $DXY.
• UST 2Y yield fell 11 bps to 3.70%, steepening 2s10s by 4 bps as $TLT, $IEF rallied.
• TSMC Q1 revenue $35.9B and 66.2% GM plus Q2 guide $39.0B–$40.2B buoyed $SOXX.

Geopolitics and energy dominated the macro tape. News that Hormuz reopened during a Lebanon 10‑day truce drove Friday WTI -11.45% and helped the S&P 500 gain 4.5% on the week, with the Nasdaq up 6.8% and Russell 2000 +2.1%. Energy fell 3.4%, while travel and small‑cap cyclicals outperformed. March PPI at +0.5% m/m vs 1.1% consensus, softer manufacturing output (-0.1% m/m vs +0.1%), and jobless claims at 207k vs 215k nudged inflation expectations lower at the margin.

Rates and policy remained in focus. The 10Y declined 6.4 bps to 4.246%, the dollar index slid 0.6%, and IG OAS tightened 1 bp to 81 bp, as the oil shock unwind outweighed steady Treasury supply, including a newly announced $13B 20‑year reopening and a still‑projected $109B net borrowing for Apr–Jun. Fed Governor Waller’s higher‑for‑longer message—potentially holding funds at 3.50%–3.75%—kept term premia relevant even as the VIX fell to 17.48. Semiconductor sentiment stayed firm on TSMC’s Q1 beat, while policy headlines around Chevron’s coastal suits and media M&A added idiosyncratic sector noise.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week’s macro tape centers on growth momentum (US retail sales, PMIs), labor resilience, and energy balances. These data interact with heavy Treasury issuance to reprice rates first, then spill into USD and broad risk appetite.

• Growth/PMIs (OTHER) — eurozone and US flash PMIs plus US retail sales test the soft‑landing narrative. numeric anchor: N/A. Driver → channel → assets: growth surprise→rate path→$SPY, $TLT, $DXY.
• Energy balances (EIA) — crude and gas reports gauge whether the recent oil collapse persists. numeric anchor: N/A. Driver → channel → assets: inventory shock→oil/gas prices→$CL=F, $XLE, $NG=F.
• Treasury duration demand (AUCTION) — 20Y nominal and 5Y TIPS auctions inform term premium and real‑yield levels. numeric anchor: N/A. Driver → channel → assets: auction tails→long yields→$TLT, $IEF, $TIP.
• Labor trend (CLAIMS) — weekly claims update tests the 207k-style low‑claims backdrop. numeric anchor: N/A. Driver → channel → assets: labor softness→Fed‑cut odds→$TLT, $SPY, $DXY.

Company Look

Next week is skewed toward index beta via a dense US earnings slate, with emphasis on mega‑cap growth ($TSLA, $INTC), semis breadth ($TXN), aero/defense ($BA, $RTX, $LMT), and rate‑sensitive sectors (utilities, financials). Market reaction should hinge on whether guidance confirms or challenges the current “resilient growth” consensus.

• Earnings — broad Q1 prints from industrials ($MMM, $BA), defense ($RTX, $LMT), growth/tech ($TSLA, $TXN, $INTC), healthcare ($TMO), utilities ($NEE), and financials ($AXP) steer sector dispersion and index tone; numeric anchor: N/A. Fundamental driver → expectations → sector/index: realized EPS/margins vs guidance→sentiment shifts→$SPY, $QQQ, $SOXX, $XLF, $XLI.

This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to transact.